Cloud Layers to Support the TAF with a LAMP/HRRR Meld
Bob Glahn, Meteorological Development Laboratory

National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD
Adam Schnapp, KBRwyle inc.
Judy Ghirardelli, Meteorological Development Laboratory

National Weather Service



Bob Glahn, Adam D. Schnapp, and Judy E. Ghirardelli

Meteorological Development Laboratory

National Weather Service, NOAA

Silver Spring, Maryland

Statistical guidance has been provided for many years to assist in the preparation of weather forecasts by National Weather Service forecasters and for use by private companies and the academic community.  However, less emphasis has been on the production of aviation forecast guidance, and in particular the TAF (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast), than for public and related forecasts.  The Meteorological Development Laboratory is developing a postprocessing system to provide much more information than in the past.  The method will be similar to the operational LAMP/HRRR Meld currently providing ceiling height and visibility guidance.

The new system will provide forecasts of heights and amounts of up to three or more layers of clouds.  Ceiling height will be the cornerstone, and will be provided as either broken or overcast.  Forecasts of few and/or scattered decks will be provided, either with or without a ceiling.  When there is a broken ceiling, broken or overcast layers above will also be forecast.

The guidance package, when completed, will also include updated visibility and obstructions to vision forecasts.  These statistical forecasts will have been themselves postprocessed to provide consistent forecasts across elements and in space and time.  This is an example of putting science into service, the theme of the conference.

In this paper, we will report on the status of the work, give a schedule for implementation, and show example forecasts and verification.