Conveying Uncertainty through Graphical Forecasts
Jacob Beitlich, NOAA National Weather Service, Chanhassen, MN
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Abstract
Today's weather forecasts are often viewed through social media platforms on mobile devices.  From that standpoint, in many cases meteorologists have a matter of seconds to convey weather information to the end user.  Forecast uncertainty and confidence is a key component necessary to motivate people to take action, especially for high impact events.  This presentation highlights a few methods for conveying uncertainty, some which are effective, and others which are not.  A case study of the 23 February, 2017 snow storm across the Upper Midwest will be presented in detail to showcase the methods previously mentioned.  The use of animations will be shown to have several advantages over still images or text products to effectively communicate weather information.