Matrix: Utilizing Forecaster Confidence
and Expected Impacts to Support Consistent Weather Messaging to NWS Core
Audra Hennecke, NOAA National Weather Service, Topeka, KS
DSS Matrix: Utilizing Forecaster Confidence and Expected Impacts to Support Consistent Weather Messaging to NWS Core Partners
Audra C. Hennecke
NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Topeka, Kansas
It is vital that the National Weather Service (NWS) provide consistent decision support services (DSS) to core partners, particularly given the growing importance of DSS activities in daily NWS operations. During a local integrated warning team (IWT) meeting hosted by WFO Topeka in 2015, NWS core partners provided valuable feedback regarding occasional inconsistencies in services. These inconsistencies were noted in transitions from shift-to-shift, day-to-day, or one weather event to the next. NWS Topeka utilized this feedback to develop a DSS matrix to assist in determining what suite of DSS products, messaging, and services needed to be provided. The DSS matrix was built upon inputs of forecaster confidence and expected impacts -- two pieces of information strongly valued by core partners -- and was developed to work across the full spectrum of hazardous weather types. This tool was adopted and fine-tuned by the NWS Central Region DSS Demonstration Team in 2015 and deemed a valuable DSS tool for NWS offices, while also serving as a situational awareness tool for the NWS Central Region Operations Center.
The DSS matrix has been an effective tool in helping forecasters determine what types of DSS products, messaging, and services to provide each day, and it ultimately resulted in more consistent DSS being delivered to core partners. The development, concept, and multi-hazard impact thresholds incorporated into the DSS matrix will be presented. Several operational examples will highlight the implementation and use of the DSS matrix during high-impact weather events within the NWS Topeka county warning area, including updated core partner feedback. It is critical to provide these services to core partners consistently in order to build trust that forecasters will provide them with beneficial, timely, and accurate weather information. This DSS matrix has proven to be an invaluable tool in establishing vital and consistent DSS.