Further Improvements to Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) and Gridded LAMP Guidance for Aviation

Judy Ghirardelli, National Weather Service/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD

Bob Glahn, National Weather Service/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD

Adam Schnapp, Wyle Science, Technology & Engineering Group, Silver Spring, MD

Phillip Shafer, National Weather Service/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD
Felicia Guarriello, Wyle Science, Technology & Engineering Group, Silver Spring, MD

Abstract

The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Localized Aviation MOS (Model Output Statistics) Program (LAMP) has been producing statistical post-processed forecast guidance for aviation since 2006. The LAMP guidance is valid at stations in the contiguous United States (CONUS), Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, while the Gridded LAMP (GLMP) guidance is valid on a 2.5-km grid covering the CONUS. The LAMP guidance is produced hourly, with forecasts covering the short-range period of the next 1-25 hours.

The NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has recently developed significant enhancements to the LAMP system. MDL plans to incorporate the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model output into LAMP for improved ceiling height and visibility guidance in the Spring of 2017. In the Summer of 2017, LAMP will be upgraded again to incorporate HRRR model output, Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS) data, and Total Lightning (TL) data from Earth Networks, Inc. to improve convection and lightning guidance. In addition, the system will be upgraded to better utilize all available observations, as well as to use additional stations. The system will run every 15 minutes to provide updated LAMP guidance for ceiling height and visibility out to 3 hours. These enhancements will yield more skillful forecast guidance and aid situational awareness through the rapid introduction of real time observations into guidance for forecasters and decision makers.

In this presentation updates will be provided on the status of recent implementations. New development methodologies to further improve LAMP guidance in support of the aviation community are being investigated and will be presented. Plans to redevelop other aviation elements for use as input to the NWS National Blend of Models will be outlined. Finally, plans will be presented for developing guidance tailored to aviation decision-making on the most impactful weather occurring within 1-h time periods.