Let it snow! Maybe: Core Partner Feedback on NWS experimental snow probability graphics
Gina Eosco, Eastern Research Group, Arlington, VA
Dave Soroka, National Weather Service
Jennifer Sprague, National Weather Service
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Abstract
Looking for input on how the National Weather Service (NWS) experimental snow probability graphics (http://products.weather.gov/PDD/ProbSnowPDD.pdf)improve core partnerís decision making, ERG conducted focus groups and simulations with broadcast meteorologists, emergency managers, departments of transportation, public works, and school superintendents in the spring of 2017. The focus groups were held in person as well as virtually to capture a broad range of geographic perspectives. The simulations were conducted one on one using an online webinar. Each methodology included showing a series of images that varies in snowfall amounts, probabilities, as well as geographic regions, as each of these factors may influence decisions. ERG sought to understand how partners interpreted the graphics both from a design perspective, such as labeling, colors, and titles, as well as from a decision science perspective, such as how partners evaluated the probability and incorporated it, or not, into school closures or plowing decisions. Findings from the study will be presented, and implications for communicating uncertainty and incorporating it into decision support will be discussed.