The Evolution of Performance Measures at the Weather Prediction Center
kenneth james, NWS/NCEP/WPC, college park, MD

Performance measures are used for a variety of purposes at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), including internal tracking of the skill of forecasts, supporting programmatic changes and improvements, and accommodating the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA), that require external agency goal reporting.

WPC has historically tracked and reported the threat score of the day 1 quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at the 1-inch threshold as the GPRA goal, while simultaneously tracking a series of internal performance measures that represent other major forecast priorities, including winter weather and medium range, Additionally, a new forecast desk, metwatch, developed in 2011 to raise situational awareness of flash flooding, has provided new incentives for revisiting the choice of performance measures and the system for calculating them.

This presentation will discuss WPC’s existing performance measures, such as the GPRA goal, the strengths and limitations of the existing measures, and opportunities for improvement to the performance measures as the mission of WPC has evolved toward supporting high-impact precipitation events and related hazards.