The Utility of High-Resolution Convection Allowing Models at Longer Time Scales to Improve Excessive Rainfall Outlook Products at NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center
Sarah Perfater, IM Systems Group/NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD
Benjamin Albright, Systems Research Group/NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT
Mark Klein, NOAA/NWS/WPC
Joshua Kastman, CIRES/NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT
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Abstract
SARAH E. PERFATER

IM SYSTEMS GROUP, NOAA/NWS/WPC, College Park, MD

ABSTRACT

Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment (FFaIR) conducted in NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center Hydrometeorology Testbed (WPC-HMT) brings together participants from the forecast, research, and modeling communities to investigate methods for improving flash flood forecasting through exercises that apply experimental tools and guidance to the forecast process.  The 2017 FFaIR Experiment will feature both experimental and operational high-resolution convective-allowing guidance used to create daily probabilistic excessive rainfall forecasts.  This testbed activity will aim to improve the skill of predicting the areal and temporal scales of impactful heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding within a pseudo-operational environment.

Until recently, high-resolution convective-allowing guidance has been available primarily for Day 1.  However, the 2017 FFaIR Experiment will test its utility for improving the skill of the Day 2 and possibly the Day 3 WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) products. Featured experimental guidance will be available from the model development teams at ESRL/GSD, OU/CAPS, the Met Office, and NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC).

This presentation will exhibit the skill results of the Days 2 and/or 3 experimental EROs created in the WPC-HMT FFaIR Experiment using experimental the high-resolution convective allowing guidance extended to longer time scales.